A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
