Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
